The 2020 U.S. election has put the country on course for its highest turnout in a century—with campaigns and candidates dominating headlines.
The bitcoin price has soared in the run up to the election, adding a massive 30% through October and riding a raft of positive news to hit highs not seen since early 2018.
Now, with Democratic challenger Joe Biden finding a solid lead in national polls over incumbent Donald Trump, bitcoin traders and investors are braced as candidates head into the last day of campaigning, with global markets already on edge.
U.S. President Donald Trump is trailing his rival Joe Biden in the polls ahead of the election this … [+]
Last week, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed its worst week and month since the coronavirus crash in March as the Republicans and Democrats geared up for the presidential race final lap.
Bitcoin, meanwhile, broke its long-held peg to equity markets, adding 5% over the last seven days and feeding into a tidal wave of bullish sentiment among bitcoin investors that hasn’t been felt since bitcoin’s historic 2017 bull run—and seems unshakeable no matter the outcome this week.
“A Trump win will probably be welcomed by the stock market players and bitcoin will keep on growing along with other assets,” Anatoliy Knyazev, executive director at brokerage Exante, said via email. “However, a Biden win, which may lead to a stock market fall, could also work in bitcoin’s favor based on the expectation of the depreciation of the dollar.”
Bitcoin investors are backing the cryptocurrency as an emerging so-called safe haven asset, with the bitcoin price potentially rising along with the likes of gold in times of increased uncertainty and risk.
“Markets loathe uncertainty, so in the event of a contested result, safe-haven assets will get a boost–especially non-sovereign classes such as gold and bitcoin,” Nigel Green, the chief executive of deVere Group, said via email.
If there’s a contested election, stocks could slide as much as 20%, Bank of America economists warned last week.
“[Investors] just want to know that there’s a winner,” Jeff Dorman, chief investment officer at cryptocurrency hedge fund Arca, told Business Insider in an interview. Dorman thinks a Biden victory would imply an unprecedented level of government spending that would be better for bitcoin and gold than four more years of Trump.
“I would say Democrats are better for inflation hedges, but as long as there’s a clear winner at some point, everything’s going higher,” he added.
The bitcoin price has climbed over the last week, hitting $14,000 per bitcoin for the first time … [+]
Other more radical elements of the bitcoin and cryptocurrency community also think a Biden victory will mean bitcoin could leap higher this week.
Contrarian Max Keiser, a Wall Street veteran, long-term bitcoin advocate and host of RT’s The Keiser Report, has predicted the bitcoin price will “bolt higher” on a Biden win, stoking unfounded fears a Biden administration will confiscate “everything.”
However, Keiser is also bitcoin price positive in the event of a surprise Trump polling upset.
“With Trump, the U.S. has a chance at a more orderly transition to bitcoin so the price would move up more slowly,” Keiser told bitcoin and cryptocurrency news outlet Cointelegraph in an interview.
No matter who takes the White House this week, the bitcoin and cryptocurrency community are convinced they’ve already backed the real winner.