Ripples and repercussions of the Ukraine Crisis in the Indo-Pacific

By Commodore Anil Jai Singh

The world is watching the dangerous game of brinkmanship between Russia and the west unfolding over Ukraine with bated breath. The question uppermost in most minds is whether Russia will invade Ukraine. While President Vladimir Putin continues to insist that he has no intention of doing so, his actions seem to be conveying the opposite. He has positioned about 100,000 troops on the border (though a partial withdrawal has reportedly begun) and the Russian Navy is busy flexing its muscle in the Black Sea. The reaction from the west has been less provocative but equally strident. While NATO is also shifting weaponry and troops in anticipation, it has focused more on dissuading Russia with the threat of economic sanctions.

President Biden seems reasonably confident that the invasion of Ukraine will happen and has directed all US citizens to evacuate the country but has continued to engage with President Putin which is encouraging. President Macron of France too met with President Volodymyr Zelenko and President Putin and perhaps gained some time. The new German Chancellor Olaf Schulz has also been quite firm in sounding out Russia with possible sanctions despite Germany’s dependence on Russian gas, its considerable economic engagement with that country and the strategic importance of the Nordstrom 2 pipeline connecting the two countries.  President Zelenko has also stated that joining NATO, though enshrined in the Ukrainian constitution may yet be a distant dream. NATO too has accepted that it is not including Ukraine in the alliance anytime soon but for obvious reasons is unlikely to state this in writing while President Putin continues to insist that it must. Hence the immediate crisis may be averted but the tensions will remain.

President Putin’s actions should not come as a surprise. The spectacular collapse of the erstwhile Soviet Union three decades ago, the subsequent humiliation at the hands of the west and the limited power of present day Russia is very difficult to digest for the likes of President Putin who was groomed as a hardcore KGB apparatchik in the heady days of the Soviet regime and witnessed its downfall first hand.  Restoring Russia to its lost glory is part of his carefully cultivated image which is essential for domestic consumption. The presence of NATO, the arch enemy of the erstwhile Soviet Union now on the very doorstep of the Russian border must be particularly galling and absolutely unacceptable to him.  Ukraine is perhaps the single most important state in Russia’s immediate sphere of influence and cannot be allowed to slip away. No big power would be happy if its sphere of influence in its immediate neighbourhood was breached. Hence, while President Putin’s concerns may be legitimate and justified, his approach is definitely not.

President Putin must also be disappointed that his actions failed to create a fault-line within NATO between the USA and its European partners, with differing views on addressing this issue and thereby weakening the US position in Europe. NATO is a thorn in Russia’s flesh and weakening this alliance will empower Putin in Europe.

While there are signs that the tension on the Ukrainian border may ease, Russia’s intentions are unpredictable as there are other unresolved issues related to other separatist areas which could also spark off a Russian reaction.  It is of course hoped that good sense will prevail. However, the Russian provocation of the west will continue with President Putin finding different ways of disrupting the region and asserting his power.

The question also being debated is whether tensions in Europe could impact the Indo-Pacific particularly in view of the recent Putin-Xi Jinping Summit in China and their commitment to a ‘no limits’ partnership on the sidelines of the Winter Olympics. China has its own agenda in the Indo-Pacific and Russia would be naïve to believe that the Chinese overture is for mutual benefit of both countries, their grand announcements notwithstanding. Both Russia under Putin and China under Xi will never be willing to play second fiddle to the other. 

Further, if China had hoped that the USA’s current preoccupation with Europe would impact its commitment to the Indo-Pacific, the Quad Foreign Ministers meeting in Australia followed by the US Administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy document a couple of days later should have laid those hopes to rest. Infact, the Quad meeting and the Indo-Pacific Strategy document have unequivocally communicated the importance of the Indo-Pacific and the USA’s abiding commitment to the region driven by its own interests and those of its allies and partners. Maintaining a rules-based international order and ensuring a Free and Open Indo-Pacific remains the topmost priority in the region. China would do well to re-evaluate its own approach lest it get swamped by the number of fronts it has opened with its belligerence and the pushback it is receiving from many of the affected countries. The Wuhan virus has not helped its cause either.  Perhaps President Xi’s direction to his diplomats last year to be more pleasant in their dealings was one such effort; this of course is a tall order considering that so far they were expected to do just the opposite. 

India’s response to the Ukraine crisis has been guarded and it has taken a ‘principled stand’ on the issue. It is perhaps in between a rock and a hard place to some extent. It has a deep and abiding strategic relationship with Russia which has stood the test of time while simultaneously growing its proximity to the west. It was one of four countries in the UN Security Council to abstain from voting on allowing a discussion on Ukraine to take place – the US wanted a discussion and Russia didn’t; China was the only one to vote against so the discussion went ahead with 10 of the 15 members voting in favour of the proposal.

While the Ukraine crisis may not have a direct impact on India except for the safety of almost 18000 Indian students and the fluctuations in the Indian stock market, its size and regional importance preclude it from being a bystander in global affairs.It recently signed a USD 374 million contract with Philippines for export of the Brahmos missile which is an Indo-Russian joint venture. More such exports may be in the offing. The developing China-Russia-Pakistan axis is also of concern. Prime Minister Imran Khan was also in China during the winter Olympics where the second phase of the CPEC which passes through disputed Indian Territory got the nod and is now scheduled to visit Russia.

There has also been speculation on India’s future choices. It is evident that the US understands the imperatives of the Russia-India relationship and has remained non-committal on the possibility of subjecting India to CAATSA sanctions in the wake of the S-400 deal with Russia. The first S-400 system has already arrived and another four are expected. However, if the pressure continues to build, India may find itself being pushed into a corner with its own national interests forcing it to take sides. The External Affairs Minister Dr Jaishankar is scheduled to attend the Munich Security Summit later this month where Ukraine is going to be a major topic of discussion. India will also take over the presidency of the G20 later this year. It will therefore have to tread carefully in articulating its position.

(The author is a former submariner of the Indian Navy. And is now Vice President of the Indian Maritime Foundation. Views expressed are personal and do not reflect the official position or policy of Financial Express Online. Reproducing this content without permission is prohibited).