France, Europe’s second largest auto market, saw a plugin electric vehicle market share of 15.9% in July 2021, up by over two thirds from 9.5% in July 2020. This growth came despite a slight (€1000) trim to electric vehicle incentives from the start of July. This change created a pull-forward in June, and subsequent July supply shortfall of the all-electric bestsellers, the Tesla Model 3 and Renault Zoe. The overall auto market was down some 33% from pre-COVID norms.
The combined plugin result of 15.9% comprised 6.5% full electrics (BEVs) and 9.3% plugin hybrids (PHEVs), a new record high score for the latter category. Year to date cumulative shares now stand at 7.7% BEV and 7.9% PHEV.
The overall EV plugin incentive was trimmed by €1000 (from €7000 to €6000 for most BEVs) in July. Tesla and Renault front loaded their BEV supplies into June (leading to a record BEV volume) to grab the higher incentive. As a negative side-effect, the supply volume of BEVs in July suffered a significant hangover.
For example, 2021’s leading BEV, the Tesla Model 3 (mostly shipping from Shanghai) fell from 5001 units in June, to just 43 units in July. The year-to-date runner up BEV, the Renault ZOE, fell from 3349 units in June to just 1148 in July.
Overall the market saw a shortfall of over 7600 BEVs (a cut of over 50% in potential volume) in July relative to June. While a small portion of this shortfall was no doubt due to somewhat weaker demand via the incentive cut itself, a larger portion if the shortfall was certainly due to the front-loading of BEV supply into June relative to July. These factors account for the temporary drop-off in BEV share in July.
Both consumer demand for BEVs, and available supply volumes, will smooth out again over the rest of the year. The trailing 3-month BEV share (smoothing quarterly peaks and troughs) stands at 8.76%, a healthy growth over 5.46% in the same period last year:
Note that our previous data source, the industry association CCFA, has now been merged into another industry grouping, the PFA, but the data methodology and release timings remain similar.
Popular BEVs Over H1 2021
As usual, we don’t yet have complete BEV model data from France, apart from the notable crash in supply volumes of dedicated BEV models like the Tesla Model 3, Renault ZOE, and Volkswagen ID.3. Other popular BEV models in France should have seen volumes closer to the previous month of June, with the Peugeot e-208, Fiat 500e, and Renault Twingo ZE scoring in the range of approximately 1000 to 2000 units. Given the Model 3 and ZOE crashes, the Peugeot e-208 was likely July’s best selling BEV.
Later this month we will release our regular full report of July’s most popular models in France. Meanwhile, for the big picture, here’s a reminder of the most popular plugin models over the first half of 2021:
Prospects
Despite the modest incentive cut from July 1st, France’s plugin market share continues to grow at a healthy clip year-on-year. Another €1000 incentive trim scheduled from the start of 2022 (though still leaving €5000 on the table for most BEVs), will cause another small ripple, but won’t change the overall trajectory of change. In fact it will likely cause a small pull forward of plugin sales in December, boosting the 2021 end of year result.
August, traditionally peak holiday season in France, is often a slow month for auto sales, and for plugin market share. September on the other hand, with new model releases, often sees a notable uptick in plugin share. Will we see 20% share exceeded in September? And will December get close to 30% share? Please share your thoughts in the comments.
