Key Insights:
- On Thursday, XRP slid by 2.37%. Reversing two bullish sessions, XRP ended the day at $0.3704.
- There were no SEC v Ripple updates, leaving US economic indicators and Fed chatter to influence.
- The technical indicators are bearish, with XRP sitting below the 200-day EMA, supporting a fall to $0.35.
On Thursday, XRP slid by 2.37%. Reversing 0.55% gains from Tuesday and Wednesday, XRP ended the day at $0.3704.
A bullish start to the day saw XRP rise to an early high of $0.3810. Falling short of the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3917, XRP slid to a final hour low of $0.3694.
Finding support at $0.37, XRP avoided the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3674 to end the day at $0.3704.
There were no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to influence, leaving XRP in the hands of the broader crypto market.
On Thursday, the SEC v Ripple case took a backseat, with investors focused on the US economy and the Fed.
With no updates from the ongoing SEC v Ripple case to consider, economic indicators from Thursday eased investor fears of a US economic recession. While the stats were crypto-friendly, hawkish FOMC member chatter was market negative.
FOMC member chatter affirmed this, with FOMC member James Bullard leaning in favor of a 75-basis point hike. FOMC member Mary Daly, speaking early in the Thursday session, reportedly favored a 50 or 75 basis point move. Significantly, both also talked of a rise-and-hold strategy rather than reversing course.
However, while the broader crypto market remains at the mercy of the US economy and the Fed, the SEC v Ripple case remains the key driver for XRP.
Investors await a Court decision on the SEC objection to the July Court ruling, denying the SEC motion to shield the Hinman docs under the attorney-client privilege. With William Hinman a central figure in the case and the Empower Oversight case against the SEC, the Court decision could prove pivotal.
This week, the SEC filed a reply brief to strengthen its objection. A Court ruling could come at any time.
XRP Price Action
At the time of writing, XRP was down 2.28% to $0.36196.
A bearish start to the day saw XRP fall through the First Major Support Level (S1) at $0.3662 to a low of $0.36055. XRP also briefly fell through the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3619.
Technical Indicators
An XRP move through S1 and the $0.3736 pivot would support a run at the First Major Resistance Level (R1) at $0.3778 and the Thursday high of $0.3810.
XRP will need broader market support to return to $0.3750. In the event of an extended rally, XRP would likely test the Second Major Resistance Level (R2) at $0.3853 and resistance at $0.39 before any pullback.
The Third Major Resistance Level sits at $0.3970.
Failure to move through S1 and the pivot would leave the Second Major Support Level (S2) at $0.3619 in play. Barring a broad-based crypto reversal, XRP should avoid the Third Major Support Level (S3) at $0.3502.
Any court ruling on the SEC objection would break down the support and resistance levels.
The EMAs and the 4-hourly candlestick chart (below) sent a bearish signal.
At the time of writing, XRP sat below the 200-day EMA, currently at $0.3682.
The 50-day EMA closed in on the 100-day EMA, with the 100-day EMA narrowing to the 200-day EMA, delivering bearish price signals.
The breakout from the 200-day EMA would support a move through the 100-day EMA ($0.3735) and the 50-day EMA (0.3756) to target R1 ($0.3778).
However, a failure to move through S1 ($0.3662) and the 200-day EMA (0.3682) would leave S2 (0.3619) in view.