LUCKNOW: Even as fresh and active cases have doubled in Uttar Pradesh in the past week, experts at IIT Kanpur monitoring the Covid-19 situation through their mathematical models stated that there was no reason to panic unless new variants come into play.
The number of cases and deaths have also gone up nationally over the past two weeks.
“The rise in cases is primarily because of decline in the natural immunity against the pandemic. There may be re-infections but there is no need to worry. Prevention, however, is advised for all,” said IIT-K’s Prof Manindra Agarwal, who has been predicting the pandemic behaviour through his SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach) mathematical model.
He said that the present surge should not even be called a wave. “It is better to call the recent rise as a ripple rather than a wave. Also, eventually, coronavirus will become a common flu,” he said.
Talking about the surge of cases in Maharashtra and Kerala, Prof Agarwal said: “The two states may peak in the third week of July but the surge will not be alarming as the rate of hospitalisation remains extremely low.”
Rajeh Ranjan, the IIT-K assistant professor who devised the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model to decode the coronavirus activity, said that Omicron and its subtypes were causing the disease these days. Predicting that the present wave will be smaller than the third wave, he said: “There was no reason to panic unless a new variant surfaces.”
Stressing the need for prevention despite the general immunity against the coronavirus created by vaccination and exposure, Ranjan suggested that health authorities should intensify genome sequencing in a random fashion and in new cities.
“The virus is nasty and may change its form the moment it gets a favourable environment. Strong vigilance through randomised genome sequencing in new pockets can give better insight into the virus activity,” he said.
The number of cases and deaths have also gone up nationally over the past two weeks.
“The rise in cases is primarily because of decline in the natural immunity against the pandemic. There may be re-infections but there is no need to worry. Prevention, however, is advised for all,” said IIT-K’s Prof Manindra Agarwal, who has been predicting the pandemic behaviour through his SUTRA (Susceptible, Undetected, Tested (positive), and Removed Approach) mathematical model.
He said that the present surge should not even be called a wave. “It is better to call the recent rise as a ripple rather than a wave. Also, eventually, coronavirus will become a common flu,” he said.
Talking about the surge of cases in Maharashtra and Kerala, Prof Agarwal said: “The two states may peak in the third week of July but the surge will not be alarming as the rate of hospitalisation remains extremely low.”
Rajeh Ranjan, the IIT-K assistant professor who devised the SIR (Susceptible-Infected-Recovered) model to decode the coronavirus activity, said that Omicron and its subtypes were causing the disease these days. Predicting that the present wave will be smaller than the third wave, he said: “There was no reason to panic unless a new variant surfaces.”
Stressing the need for prevention despite the general immunity against the coronavirus created by vaccination and exposure, Ranjan suggested that health authorities should intensify genome sequencing in a random fashion and in new cities.
“The virus is nasty and may change its form the moment it gets a favourable environment. Strong vigilance through randomised genome sequencing in new pockets can give better insight into the virus activity,” he said.