Disclaimer: The findings of the following analysis are the sole opinions of the writer and should not be considered investment advice.
USDT Dominance, a measure of the crypto market cap possessed by Tether the stablecoin, has been rising toward 5% in the past month. The rise of this dominance metric indicated that market participants preferred to sit on the sidelines rather than deploy their capital.
Yet, Monero has seen a strong rally in the past two months, which meant it had buyers at a time when most of the market was fearful. Can buyers defend the $200 area, or is a wave of selling around the corner?
XMR- 12 Hour Chart
XMR had a strong rally from $132.1 to $289.5 throughout February and March. Based on these swing low and high points, a set of Fibonacci retracement levels (yellow) was plotted. It showed $192.2 and $165.8 to be the 61.8% and 78.6% retracement levels. The reversal of this pullback can be expected to occur within this area.
The cyan box highlighted on the charts extends from $192 to $203, and it has been an area of both supply and demand in the past two months. This area also has confluence with the $200 psychological level of resistance. In early March, this zone acted as supply and rejected the advance of bulls, but was flipped to an area of demand later the same month.
At press time, it was tested as a demand zone once more, but selling pressure could push XMR further south, past the $190 mark.
Rationale
Source: XMR/USDT on TradingView
The RSI had been above neutral 50 all throughout March and much of April, to show a steady uptrend in progress. At the same time, the OBV was also rising, while the DMI showed a bullish trend in progress with the ADX (yellow) and +DI (green) above the 20 mark.
In the past week, however, the momentum has changed. The RSI slipped beneath neutral 50, the OBV saw a pullback, and the DMI also showed a strong bearish trend in progress. The Aroon indicator showed a bearish trend as well, with the Aroon Down (blue) dominant on the indicator.
If the OBV slips beneath the horizontal level plotted on its indicator, it would be more likely for XMR to drop toward the $180-$190 area.
Conclusion
Even though the $200 area was a strong zone of demand, it was likely that Monero would plunge beneath it in the days or weeks to come. In such a scenario, the $165-$190 area can be used to buy Monero with a longer-term time horizon.