The second half of March was relatively bullish for the markets, especially for Ethereum, with only two red daily candles. ETH started the rally when breaking above $2500 and then surged by 25%.
Crossing the psychological resistance at $3,000 was an outstanding achievement for the bulls, marking a decent recovery of about 50% of the downtrend since reaching the all-time high. What’s next?
The Daily Chart
Technical Analysis by Grizzly
After crossing the $3K milestone, ETH is currently struggling at a descending line (marked by blue) on the daily chart. The line was very active, interacting with the price over the past 300 days.
This resistance intersects with the horizontal resistance at $3300, and crossing this area alongside the formation of a higher high can technically be considered as the end of the downtrend in the short term.
Over the last week, RSI 30 days has crossed the baseline and has entered the bullish area. Like the price, it is struggling with the descending trendline (marked by red), which was tested once on March 24 and is currently being retested (yellow circle).
If the price can cross above $3300, the next resistances are at $3600 and $4100. otherwise, if the bears can defend this area, the supports at $3000 and $2800 are the first areas where the price is likely to find solid support.
Moving Average Exponential levels
EMA20: $2790
EMA50: $2830
EMA100: $3061
EMA200: $3488
The 4-Hour Chart
On the 4-hour timeframe, ETH is forming an Adam and Eve pattern (marked by yellow), which is textbook bullish.
The baseline of this pattern is at the horizontal resistance at $3300, which is mentioned in the above analysis. The OBV indicator is below the descending line (marked by red), and crossing above it will probably coincide with the price breaching above the resistance at $3300.
Targets above $4,000 will become reasonable in case Adam and Eve pattern is completed.
On-Chain: Spent Output Profit Ratio – 30 Days MA
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) is computed by dividing the realized value (in USD) divided by the value at creation (USD) of a spent output. Or simply – price sold divided by price paid.
When this metric is above 1, the market participants are moving/spending their coins in profit. In the chart above, one can see that whenever this indicator is able to cross the baseline or 1, the price has been able to reach higher levels and indicates a low-risk purchase.
This has not happened yet, and one can probably expect this breaking to take place with the price crossing the resistance at $3300.
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Cryptocurrency charts by TradingView.