Jonathan Rao
With the Russia-Ukraine war enters into the
third week, there are no signs of its end.
Despite three meetings between Russian and Ukrainian delegation, no
substantial breakthrough has been made while the bloodshed and human displacement
continues. The effect of war has already
shown up in the rising commodity prices globally, especially crude oil and
wheat and there has been logistic disruptions. A mammoth human crisis leading
to movement of about two million people from Ukraine is putting pressure on
neighboring counties.
India, being the biggest democracy in the world
is concerned about things at stake due to Russo-Ukraine war. It is close to
both Russia and Ukraine and as a well wisher believes that any dispute between
two sovereign nations should be solved through dialogue rather than war. The
Prime Minister of India has held talks with the heads of the two warring
countries as well as neighbouring countries like Hungary. The Indian response
to the war and subsequent abstention from voting on the UN resolution could be
seen as a responsible, neutral and human stand on the issue. India made a point
before heads of warring countries to make a human corridor to allow civilians
to move away from the war ravaged regions along with its own students in
Ukraine. India also sent a very strong
message as a responsible nation by facilitating students from neighboring
Pakistan and Nepal.
India as the fastest growing economy of the
world is concerned about the economic implications of war on the global
economy, especially Russia, Ukraine and Europe with whom India has deep ties. The disruptions in global commodity supply
chain, especially crude oil, gas and wheat would not auger well for the nascent
global economic recovery post COVID-19. India believes that the two warring countries
which share a common history and culture since long should open their windows
for fruitful dialogue.
Unlike others, India has neither taken
sides nor fallen into the blame game. Although many of the Western countries
are blaming Russia for invasion on a sovereign nation, China in his statements
blamed NATO for provoking the Russia- Ukraine war. The blame game often reduces the odds to find
a solution to a problem. It is apparent
that underneath the Russia-Ukraine was there is an unmistakable semblance of
war for hegemony between the super powers refreshing the memory of cold war.
It is necessary to appreciate Russian
concern about the presence of NATO forces in its backyard, but nothing can
justify a war. India appreciates Russia’s concerns, but does not approved
violent methods to resolve the issues. The efforts of the US and its NATO
partners to contain a super power like Russia, howsoever indirectly, alleging
that it is arrogant, autocratic and irresponsible power would only lead to
vicious circle of arguments and counter-arguments and vitiate the situation.
Indications were given by China, Israel and
Turkey for intermediating talks between the two warring countries. But these countries do not elicit as much
trust as mediators. While China remains
aligned with Russia, howsoever, tacitly, Turkey is known to have played on both
sides – Russia and the Western allies.
For Israel, it will be very hard to prove that it is neutral between
Russia and the US, as it has been an ally of the later for long, especially in
the context of geo-politics in the Middle East.
The global economy, which was showing “the
green shoots” of economic recovery after the recessionary impact of the Covid pandemic,
has come under fresh threat. India is concerned that the ripple effects of a
war of this proportion, if continues, can jeopardize the efforts of the world
to realize the goals of sustainable development.
The raft of sanctions including exclusion
from SWIFT imposed against Russia would not have economic implications for
Russia alone, but on all the countries including those in the EU which have
close ties with Russia. Although, the
sanctions would significantly disrupt Russia’s ability to receive payments for
exports and imports and cripple cross-border financial transactions, the key
trading partners of Russia, including European countries, would also face
difficulties paying for the imports of Russian oil and gas.
The recent address of American President
that people should stand ready to pay the cost for the cause of democracy, as
the global commodity prices including crude oil and wheat have touched new
highs, is not very reassuring towards solving the problem. The inflationary
pressure would make life difficult for poor households globally.
Many of the Asian economies including India
import a major part of their energy requirements and a big spike in crude
prices would put immense pressure on their balance of payments. Especially, as
the Indian economy is being treated by as an engine of global economic recovery
post Covid, such a spike would bear heavily on growth and price stability.
China also cannot afford to relish as a silent gainer from Russian challenge to
the US and its allies in the game of hegemony. Due to its strategic location,
Ukraine is very important for China as a gateway to Europe and the European
Union, the war would affect supply of minerals and agricultural products both
ways. Ukraine is an important hub within the BRI, which Kiev joined in 2017.
The Chinese companies working in Ukraine including Beinkew Energy, Xinjiang
communications Construction Group and Weldatlantic Group would also register
disruption in operations.
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