Covid 19 Omicron outbreak editorial: Why waves of the coronavirus will ripple on

EDITORIAL

As the Omicron outbreak slowly loosens its grip, it is sobering to think that New Zealand has been hurt most by a variant supposedly near the end of the pandemic.

If this is the
tail-end of the coronavirus, then it’s a hard-spiked dragon’s tail we’ve been lashed by.

The overall data is improving, heading on a downward path. On Thursday, the seven-day rolling average of community cases, hospitalisations, numbers in ICU, and cases in Auckland were all down on the day before.

But the real-life toll continues to be huge for a small country such as this one: 11 more people died with Covid-19 on Thursday, bringing overall pandemic deaths to 221 by that date.

It’s still a very small total compared to other countries, but it’s high compared to disasters New Zealand has been through in living memory. It is not what Gen X and younger cohorts are used to.

Up until the Delta outbreak last August, New Zealand’s death toll for the pandemic was a remarkably low 26. When the country went all red under the traffic light system in late January because of Omicron, the toll had risen to 52. By the time Delta was eliminated in February, one more death had occurred.

The rest of the deaths up to Thursday – 168 – were added during the Omicron wave over a 32-day period, although the stats have been complicated by Ministry of Health changes to reporting and categorising of deaths linked to Covid.

Still, the most deadly period of the pandemic in New Zealand has been one month -the past month – out of 24 months altogether. And it has mainly been driven by the BA.2 Omicron subvariant.

This has implications for what could still be around the corner, even if new variants are mostly medically benign.

Omicron generally produces milder infections than Delta, but its transmissibility has been key and BA.2 is even more evolved to spread easily than BA.1. Now a section of the population has gained some degree of immunity – for an unknown period of time – the hard way, through infection.

Unvaccinated people and the elderly with other health vulnerabilities have been particularly at risk. Most of the infected have been younger, but they can spread it to people who can least afford to get it.

New Zealand’s high rates of vaccination among older people prevented the situation from being worse, as comparisons with Hong Kong have shown. However, the 70-plus age group here still has had the highest number of hospitalisations from Covid since last August.

Former director of the US Centres for Disease Control and Prevention Dr Tom Frieden tweeted this week: “Covid remains ferocious, and Omicron is lethal in an immunologically naïve population, particularly among unvaccinated older people. Increasing vaccination, including boosters, among this group is a life-or-death challenge.”

Several countries in Europe have been experiencing an uptick in case numbers with BA.2 this month although Our World in Data numbers suggest that situation is starting to improve.

But in France and New South Wales, Australia, cases are rising again. And what if Omicron produces another faster, fitter subvariant that arrives here? That would be deadly for some people in the community.

Then there’s also the Deltacron variant. University of Otago virologist Dr Jemma Geoghegan says “recombination” helps the virus generate genetic variation.

Because of Omicron, New Zealand is now experiencing Covid in a similar way to how many countries overseas have dealt with it previously. That means getting used to a new normal, although people have their own attitudes to the virus and appetite for risk.

With widespread vaccination, the ability to top-up immunity with boosters, good quality masks and knowledge gained about Covid, there’s unlikely to be any going back to severe measures with this current coronavirus. Across several variants, vaccine protection against the worst outcomes has stayed strong. And clearly, the pandemic has got to a point where public weariness, alignment with other countries, and economic stress have become increasingly important considerations.

Each person out on the street still needs to be wary, though. This dragon may yet sweep its tail again.