Bye-Bye Biden
President Biden will face the first real test of his policies in the 2022 midterms. Presidents usually lose seats during their first mid-term regardless of their performance. In fact, since World War II, the sitting president’s party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House and four seats in the Senate,3 but analysts and politicos worldwide are bracing for a blood bath for Democrats in the coming midterm. There is a strong case that Biden will lose the House and the Senate. But even if he loses just one legislative body, it will hamstring his administration. A loss of either the House or Senate will keep Biden from making unilateral attacks on Bitcoin. So as we head towards 2024, Biden will be weakened, hamstrung, and void of a mandate (more on this). From there, it only takes a solid opponent to oust him in the 2024 presidential election.
The case for Biden’s removal from power? Let’s start with the midterms and move forward. Biden’s biggest problem in the midterms is plain and simple: Donald Trump is gone, so Democrats can’t effectively run against Trump in the midterms as they did in 2020. In politics, it’s always a losing strategy to campaign against someone who is no longer in office. So, it’s up to the Biden administration to convince voters they have done an exceptional job handling the pandemic and the recovery, or at least a good enough job to hold onto power. Voters arguably brought in Biden to deal with COVID-19 and the shutdown process as many voters lost faith in Trump to manage the country during the pandemic. Since Biden has been in office, fears over COVID-19 and the desire for sustained shutdowns have dropped dramatically. The new number one problem in voters’ minds is the economy, and the number one issue driving fears about the economy is inflation. Voters are growing unhappy with Biden’s direction as we move away from closures.4 Rising food, gas, and home prices have many concerned about the future. Inflation is at its highest in nearly 40 years. A rising cost of living is enough motivation to get voters to turn out for the opposition. Still, on top of that, ads will also target midterm voters with non-stop videos of U.S. military planes taking off from Afghanistan airports. Those videos will play blurry images of terrified Afghans plummeting to their death while trying to hold onto the outside of the aircraft as they attempt to flee the Taliban during the abrupt U.S. departure in August of 2021. After 20 years of managing Afghan defenses, the move to abandon the Afghans showed weakness to our adversaries. It will likely result in further aggression worldwide from those who wish to harm America. A dark shadow will blanket any excitement to turn out for Biden due to this embarrassment on the geopolitical stage. Governing is not easy, and mistakes happen, but this was a self-inflicted wound that will galvanize voters who worry about national security and foreign policy to vote a wave of Republicans into power. Biden’s only hope is to claim victory over the pandemic once the omicron variant has passed, which I assume he will attempt, but voters will still be left with a worrisome view of the future. Many believe inflation will persist well into the future.
Under this theory, Biden will be immobilized within 12 months from today, once he’s lost control over the federal government’s legislative branch, which only requires the loss of the House or the Senate. (Remember, he only has a one-vote lead in the Senate.) Once he has lost, Republicans will become a thorn in Biden’s side as they have for every Democrat president since the days of House Majority Leader Newt Gingrich. As a result, very little will happen in the way of any legislation – including aggressive anti-Bitcoin legislation – between 2022 and 2024 as both sides prepare to face off for the ultimate presidential showdown where I predict that Trump will return to run against Biden. This December, Biden declared that he would run for a second term. I expect Trump to wait till after the midterms to announce his third run. That move will minimize any ability of the Democrats to run against him during this cycle.
“Never interrupt your enemy when he is making a mistake.” – Napoleon Bonaparte
That patience will pay off for Trump. A sweeping victory in 2022 will bolster Trump’s odds of winning in 2024 as he can declare it as evidence for his “needed return” so he can run on his favorite issue, “saving the economy.” And if he is genuinely being patient, Trump will wait to declare his candidacy until after the Republicans have filled their new seats in D.C. in January. Waiting until January will avoid any incentive for Democrats to lay poison pills on their way out of power, which they will do anyway but they’ll have less leverage if Trump stays quiet.
Orange Man Returns
If (when) Trump declares his candidacy for president of the U.S., most Americans will be surprised as they realize he can return to the Oval Office. Many Americans are likely unaware of this possibility because we haven’t had a president with disjointed terms since Grover Cleveland ended his first term in 1889 and returned in 1893. Oddly enough, Grover left his first term in office under the same storyline of “voter fraud accusations.” Unlike Trump, Grover accepted defeat and even held an umbrella for his opponent, Benjamin Harrison, during Harrison’s inauguration. When Harrison was up for re-election, he lost to Grover for the same reasons I predict Biden will lose: mismanagement of the economy and labor unrest. History doesn’t always repeat, but it rhymes.
If the story plays out as it did in 1893, Trump will return for a second term where he will be joined by the most conservative Supreme Court in almost 100 years.5 If he is fortunate, he will return to power with a Republican-led House and Senate.
If it plays out this way, which is NOT a guarantee but more likely than many Democrats want to admit, Trump could potentially have excessive amounts of power during his second term in office. Trump accomplished an incredible amount for Republicans and Conservatives during his first term with less control over the federal government. That level of power is dangerous for Bitcoin in the U.S. because Trump is the type of president who would use his bully pulpit and the authority of the presidential pen to dismantle America’s chances of aligning with a Bitcoin future. Trump recently has made comments directed at crypto, saying that “it could be an explosion the likes of which we have never seen” and that “it’s a very dangerous thing.”
These statements show he is ready to take aggressive action to defend the entrenched powers in the financial system. Furthermore, it shows Trump sees the entire crypto space as a threat. I can’t blame him, and if we know anything about Trump, it’s that he loves America and would be the president to symbolically attack Bitcoin if he sees it as a threat to the U.S. dollar or U.S. power. Trump’s excessive power plus his propensity to attack any threat to America is why it is mission-critical to orange-pill Trump before he takes on a second term and becomes the 47th president. Orange-pilling Trump would mean (at minimum) he doesn’t view Bitcoin as a threat to the U.S. and that we have a lot to gain from adopting Bitcoin early. The hope is he can see the benefit of holding bitcoin as a reserve asset and that he sees Bitcoin mining as a productive new industry for America to compete in. If this threshold is met, Trump may use his powers the same way President Bukele of El Salvador used his: to make favorable decisions that will help push the U.S. towards an orange future.
Bitcoin, at its core, is one of the most American pieces of technology ever devised. It protects individual freedoms and minimizes the role of government without hurting the interests of the U.S. globally. In fact, with the advent of stablecoins and the inevitable decline of fiat currencies worldwide, the dollar may become more robust than ever as many individuals and entities worldwide seek a more stable currency (look up the Dollar Milkshake Theory ). Orange-pilling Trump would be ideal, but we must also think pragmatically. The backup plan to keep a “worst-case scenario” from playing out would be to get enough Republican members of Congress to block any moves by Trump to attack Bitcoin. For this effort, I have been encouraged by the level of adoption by Republican members of Congress. On the Republican side of the aisle, Ted Cruz, Cynthia Lummis, and Pat Toomey defend Bitcoin in the Senate. Republicans also have incredible members of the House such as Warren Davidson, Ted Budd, Tom Emmer, Patrick McHenry, and Kevin Brady fighting back against the “attack on Bitcoin” that was slipped into the infrastructure bill by the U.S. Treasury. Biden’s White House supported that attack which is more evidence for why Biden is out of touch and will lose to Republicans moving forward.
In the event that Trump wins and turns against Bitcoin, these orange-pilled (bitcoin-sympathizing) members of Congress may be our last line of defense. They may be unwilling to toe the party line if Trump decides to go the wrong way, or they may even be the ones to sit him down to explain why Bitcoin is a positive for the U.S. I could see a similar series of events playing out identical to how Trump became a “born again” Christian during his first run.6 It’s possible Trump could “see the light” on Bitcoin if enough good Bitcoiners create inroads with him and share the “good word of Satoshi” during Trump’s third run for President.
It isn’t easy to orange-pill a specific target. Hopefully, the worst-case scenario is that enough Republicans in Congress will be pro-Bitcoin and in a position to block bad legislation. They may also apply social pressure on Trump to ensure no critical damage is done to America’s chances of maintaining their Bitcoin industry edge over the rest of the world. This is why it is vital to pressure your local elected officials to take a pro-Bitcoin stance and to place pro-Bitcoin politicians in Congress for the next two cycles. Then, they can act as a last line of defense to stop any anti-Bitcoin policy coming out of the White House from passing in Congress.
I believe it is mission critical to get to Trump because he will likely be the last president who can do severe damage to the future of the U.S. during the period when Bitcoin was created, to when it becomes fully adopted by this nation and others. If Trump were to ban mining or enforce legislation that would push industry players out of this country, it would not be Bitcoin that loses, but America. If you plan to live here for the foreseeable future and want America to thrive as a Bitcoin nation, I suggest you work to prevent this from happening in whichever way you can.
Trump could be an incredible ally to Bitcoin’s future in the U.S., or he could lead us down the same path as the CCP. Regardless of your politics, if Trump wins, it is better for you and your family if he doesn’t attack Bitcoin. There is a danger when power is centralized, but it can also be of benefit if those in power make the right decisions. For example, El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, learned about Bitcoin in 2017, and now El Salvador has a legal tender law, volcano-powered Bitcoin mining, and a “Bitcoin City” in the works. He was able to do that because he has a lot of political power in El Salvador. It may seem unlikely now, but Trump could also lead us down the same path if the correct series of events occurs. If you want to see the U.S. go down the route of adopting Bitcoin, I will encourage you to join me and the many others fighting for this future.
If you want to become a part of a bottom-up effort to get into Trump’s ear if (when?) he returns to the most powerful office in the world, make it known to the candidates and elected officials running for office that you will vote on the issue of Bitcoin. No matter if your city and state are red, blue, or purple, show up to events, write letters, make phone calls, contribute to campaigns, and let D.C. know that you want the U.S. to be a part of the future and that you want your home to be the best place in the world for Bitcoiners. We all need to make our leaders know we will move our votes and capital to pro-Bitcoin candidates who work to defend and promote this incredible technology in the U.S. After the recent crypto tax reporting amendment fight, I promise you, they hear us. Still, as we head towards 2024, it’s going to be critical that American-bound Bitcoiners get louder than ever before.
