In 2013 we saw a local top followed by a summer lull to then continue the bull market. I believe we have put in the summer lull and we are on our way to reach the Market Cycle top.
I also believe that we are seeing diminishing returns, otherwise, BTC would reach 300k this market cycle if it followed 2013 percentages and I don’t think that is very likely.
How I reached the Top :
The 2011 peak to the top of the first local top brought us a 734% gain
The 2017 peach to the top of the first local top brought us a 227% gain
This is a reduction of about 30.9%
From the local top to the 2013 ATH it was a 366% increase
If we were to speculate a top ATH for this cycle with the same reduction ratio it would be an increase of 113.094% which would equate to a 138k Bitcoin .
How I reached the bottom :
I did notice that in 2013 the bottom of the bear market reached the top of the weekly Candle close of the first local top. In our case, it would fall to about 60k. This seems very reasonable to be the bottom for this cycle as it would only be a 60% retracement from the predicted top.
It’s important to note that from the first local top in 2013 to the bottom it was a 75% decrease and the from Market top it was an 87% decrease. Meaning the drop from the ATH in 2013 was 13.5% greater than the previous drop.
So if we take the measured drop from the local top to the bottom in our current cycle we get a 55.37% decrease adding 13.5% to that gives us 62.84% which would be our assumed total drop for this upcoming bear market cycle meaning that Bitcoin would have a low of 53k give or take.
You may ask you self well that isn’t that much of a drop compared to the last cycles but we must account for the institutional investors that have joined us and are looking to hold and not sell out after a few months/years.
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