Market Wrap: Bitcoin Declines as Buyers Await Lower Support Levels

After spending most of the day in negative territory, cryptocurrencies made a late surge on Friday with bitcoin hitting its highest level since mid-May. Bitcoin is currently trading above $41,000 at press time and is up more than 15% over the past week. Bullish sentiment has returned after a sharp sell-off in May and two months of consolidation above the $30,000 support level.

Some analysts are optimistic and expect buyers to remain active above the 50-day moving average, which is above $34,000 now.

“We have been talking about the market having lower liquidity during the summer for a few weeks now and we think this helps explain the sharp price action we saw that triggered the short squeeze of nearly $1 billion in futures liquidations,” David Grider, a strategist at FundStrat, wrote in a Thursday newsletter.

Grider stated that bitcoin’s spike could reflect a flight to safety from Chinese investors looking to “get out at any cost,” given the recent sell-off in Asian equities. “Bitcoin could have been trading as a proxy tool for investors looking for a hedge,” Grider wrote.

Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell assured markets this week that the U.S. central bank is considering when to start winding down its program of purchasing $120 billion in bonds every month, but Wall Street analysts are already wondering what will come after that.

According to Bank of America, the Fed may not get around to raising interest rates anywhere close to the levels that were considered normal historically, anytime soon. That implies that monetary policy could stay loose for years, even after the Fed stops actively printing money to pay for the purchases of U.S. Treasuries and mortgage bonds. 

The dynamic might be bullish for bitcoin, because many investors see the cryptocurrency as a hedge against the inflation and dollar debasement that might come from easy-money policies. 

A similar shallow tightening pattern was seen toward the end of 2018, when the Fed pushed the benchmark interest rate up to around 2.5%, traditional financial markets went into a swoon, and by early 2019, the central bank had reversed course and started cutting rates again. 

According to the Bank of America analysts, bond market investors may already be anticipating the dynamic, which may explain why 10-year U.S. Treasury yields are at historically low levels of around 1.2%, well below the most-recent annual inflation rate of 5.4%

“We think the level of rates in the U.S. reflects a market expectation that the Fed will produce only a shallow hiking cycle,” the analysts wrote.

The active entities of bitcoin have surged over the last week, rising 30% to 325,000 active entities per day, according to Glassnode. The number has been in decline from January to mid-July. 

Entities refer to “a cluster of addresses that are controlled by the same network entity and are estimated through advanced heuristics and Glassnode’s proprietary clustering algorithms,” according to Glassnode. Active entities include those active either as a sender or receiver.

Ether, the world’s second largest cryptocurrency, faces resistance near $2,500, where resistance is defined by the 100-day moving average. Ether is up about 10% over the past week and rallied nearly 30% after holding support at $1,720 on July 20. Lower support is seen at $2,000, which could stabilize a pullback.

Ether is consolidating relative to bitcoin and is on traders’ watch for a potential breakout. The ETH/BTC ratio has initial support at 0.054, which must hold in order to keep ETH’s relative uptrend intact.

Flow soars: Flow, a token powering a blockchain network focused on non-fungible tokens (NFT), surged in price after the big cryptocurrency exchange Binance said Friday it would list the project. Binance said at 7:00 UTC (3 a.m. ET) that it would list the FLOW token; since then, the price has rallied 61% to $29 from $18. On a 24-hour basis, the cryptocurrency is up 30%.

Framework to Regulate Crypto, Stablecoins: Legislation before Congress to provide a “comprehensive legal framework” to regulate the digital asset market and possibly grant the federal government the ability to ban some stablecoins was introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives Wednesday. According to sponsor Rep. Don Beyer (D-Va.), chairman of the U.S. Congress Joint Economic Committee, the existing digital asset market structure and regulatory framework are too “ambiguous and dangerous for investors and consumers.”

Six Dapps to Go Live on SKALE: Ethereum scaling project Skale has announced which decentralized applications (dapps) will first go live on its network. Skale Labs CEO Jack O’Holleran told CoinDesk that teams will be releasing their dapps between now and the end of this summer. Boot.Finance, Covey, CurioDAO, Human Protocol, Ivy and Minds are the projects in the initial cohort. rm.

Most digital assets on CoinDesk 20 ended up higher on Friday. 

Notable winners of 22:45 UTC (6:45 p.m. ET):