Of course, since this token has a constantly decreasing supply, it should confirm that supply itself (or “ultra-sound” money) does not make a token a good monetary good.
Unlike bitcoin, whose value accrued as a game theory Schelling point from the organically decentralized, credibly fixed nature of its monetary properties, ETH’s value is derived from promises and speculation.
ETH must continue changing and promising more applications and usefulness otherwise why hold the token? The hope is simply that it becomes more scarce and more in demand, forever. Like most startups and bubbles, it’s not the underlying fundamentals that give the asset value, it’s the hope and/or speculation of what it could become.
Like stated above, ETH is a token. It’s useful if you want to use the Ethereum blockchain. It’s not money.
The ETH token is like a Chuck E. Cheese token to use the Ethereum blockchain.
ETH’s best-case scenario: There are sustainable, long-term, useful applications on the Ethereum blockchain that are not able to be built on Bitcoin or Bitcoin second layers, don’t require perfect censorship resistance or decentralization (average person can’t run an Ethereum node), and wouldn’t just be more efficient as a product or service offered by a corporation.
Potential use cases:
Buy an NFT or buy a Fortnite skin (corporation)?
Trade on DeFi exchange or trade on Binance or Coinbase (corporation)?
Get a DeFi loan or get a loan from Unchained Capital, BlockFi or HodlHodl (corporation)?
Casino, gambling or speculation (e.g., Dogecoin, ETH, and all other alts)?
The ONLY major use case for a blockchain is money (bitcoin). For money, you need censorship resistance and decentralization in order to have the best credible monetary properties.
With that said, even if some of these use cases do play out, it doesn’t mean the token (ETH) would accrue value.
When Chuck E. Cheese launched in 1977, you should have bought equity in the business, not their tokens.
ETH And Alts Are Riding Bitcoin’s Monetization
All alts are riding the success of bitcoin. On top of bitcoin’s monetization process, unprecedented monetary and fiscal policy leads to a breakdown in the pricing mechanism of “free” financial markets.
Traditional finance doesn’t understand bitcoin, and they bring their idea of diversification to the world of monetary goods (not a good idea). In addition, retail speculators are shortsighted and constantly looking for the next big thing (SPACs, GME, Dogecoin, ETH, Tron, etc.) to get rich quickly. They fall for unit bias and chase price.
At the end of the day, alts fall to the greater fool theory. Can I sell my token to someone else at a higher price?
The best monetary good (bitcoin) becomes money, and the rest are nothing more than gambling in a casino. Dogecoin (nothing more than a joke/meme) closing in on Ethereum as the number three coin should help shed more light on that.
This is a guest post by Mimesis Capital. Opinions expressed are entirely their own and do not necessarily reflect those of BTC, Inc. or Bitcoin Magazine.