The rise of cryptocurrencies in mainstream finance is coming at the expense of gold, says JP Morgan Chase & Co.
Money has poured into Bitcoin funds and out of gold since October, a trend that’s only going to continue in the long run as more institutional investors take a position in cryptocurrencies, according to the bank’s quantitative strategists including Nikolaos Panigirtzoglou.
JP Morgan is one of the few Wall Street banks that’s predicting a major shift in gold and crypto markets as digital currencies become increasingly popular as an asset class. The trend poses a problem for bulls in precious metals markets over the coming years if investors move, even a small slice, of their allocations away from gold and into crypto.
“The adoption of bitcoin by institutional investors has only begun, while for gold its adoption by institutional investors is very advanced,” wrote the JP Morgan strategists.
The Grayscale Bitcoin Trust, a listed security popular with institutions, has seen inflows of almost $2 billion since October, compared with outflows of $7 billion for exchange-traded funds backed by gold, according to JP Morgan.
JP Morgan’s calculations suggest Bitcoin only accounts for 0.18 per cent of family office assets, compared with 3.3 per cent for gold ETFs. Tilting the needle from gold to bitcoin would represent the transfer of billions in cash.
One way to play the theme is buying one unit of Grayscale and selling three units of the SPDR Gold Trust, the bank said.
“If this medium to longer term thesis proves right, the price of gold would suffer from a structural flow headwind over the coming years,” wrote JP Morgan’s strategists.
In the short term though, there’s a good chance that Bitcoin prices have overshot and gold is due for a recovery, the bank said. For Bitcoin, momentum signals have deteriorated, which will likely cause selling by investors that trade on price trends.
Bitcoin has fallen 6 per cent since closing at an all-time high of $19,462.14 last week.