With presidential candidate Joe Biden on the cusp of announcing a running mate, the stakes are high in Southern California, where the political domino effects could be profound if either U.S. Sen. Kamala Harris or Rep. Karen Bass are picked and ultimately win.
It could happen. Both are on Biden’s short list of potential vice preesidential candidates — all of whom are women who in many cases would leave legislative posts that would need to be filled.
Several Southern California leaders have emerged as contenders to fill Harris’ U.S. Senate seat or Bass’ South L.A. seat, if either make it to Pennsylvania Avenue.
Scenario #1: The Biden-Harris ticket
So, let’s just say it happened. Biden picks Harris. They win in November. Now what?
By law, Gov. Gavin Newsom, a Democrat, would pick an interim U.S. senator to fill out Harris’ term, which expires at the beginning of 2023.
Newsom could call a special election at some point, but he doesn’t have to. Doing so has its pros and cons. On one hand, a special election shows that the governor is doing the democratic thing. On the other hand, special elections are costly, and turnout isn’t generally great — and elections in general are facing pandemic-era safety concerns.
His pick for the seat would have a great chance for re-election, though. And that could mean another six years in power.
So, as the Church Lady used to say, who could it be? From the L.A. area, the possibilities may sound familiar.
Try this: Karen Bass.
“You could see her not get VP but be elevated to the Senate,” said Jessica Levinson, director of Loyola Law School’s Public Service Institute.
Levinson pointed to Bass’s experience in the Assembly and a growing stature on the national scene as key reasons she could be the governor’s pick. Not just that, but she could be a “transformative” selection — which she said Newsom is keen on making.
“There would be a comfort level. She has a great story. She founded the Community Coaltion. She was one of the Big 5 (in Sacramento) during the Great Recession. I don’t know that she’s a shoo-in but I think it would be someone Newsom would think about.”
Pundits say California Secretary of State Alex Padilla also has a serious chance.
“I think Padilla could very well be near the top of the list,” said Jack Pitney, who teaches American politics at Claremont McKenna College.
An engineer by schooling, Padilla, who grew up in Pacoima, and still calls the San Fernando Valley home, is well-poised for the job, pundits said.
After tenures on the L.A. City Council and in the state Assembly and now as the secretary of state, he’s close to Newsom. And as a Latino the 47-year-old represents the fastest-growing segment of California’s population.
After widespread speculation, L.A. Mayor Eric Garcetti stood down from a potential 2020 bid for the presidency early last year.
Garcetti, 49, who also grew up in the San Fernando Valley, was named one of four Biden campaign co-chairs in April — a spot that could put him in line for a cabinet position if Biden wins the White House in November. His mayoral term ends in 2022, which means he has opened options for hiimself, said Jaime Regalado, professor emeritus of political science at Cal State Los Angeles.
“The fact he waited on the presidency was, I think, smart,” Regalado said.
Don’t forget Rep. Adam Schiff, 60, the longtime congressman whose district stretches from Burbank and the San Fernando Valley to Silver Lake and West Hollywood.
Schiff’s national profile rose dramatically while prosecuting the impeachment against President Donald Trump — an effort that sparkedscorn among President Donald Trump supporters but a revered profile among Democrats. In office since 2001, his current term will end in 2021 in what has been a Democratic stronghold.
“I think Schiff has a lot of momentum,” said Regalado. “Whether he still has that going into a potential race for the Senate is another a matter.”
Still, Schiff and Garcetti could be climbing uphill in any kind of a bid for the seat. Los Angeles County Democratic Party Chairman Mark Gonzalez suggested that the historical moment is for change. With mass protests demanding more fairness for people of color, Newsom and voters may ultimately be looking away from appointments of white men in such a powerful seat and for such long terms, Gonzalez said.
Garcetti, too, could be tied down — at least for moment — as L.A. deals with a pandemic and a relentless homeless crisis, Levinson said.
Of course, L.A.-area Democrats aren’t the only possibilities here. Northern California politicians have a way of getting into those high offices. Newsom, Sen. Dianne Feinstein and Harris are all from Northern California, and there’s no guarantee the geographic mix will change, Levinson said.
There’s always the longshot chance that Newsom might tap somebody like former Gov. Jerry Brown — at least for a temporary post — in the run-up to a special election.
Why not, Gonzalez said. “He’s got the name. He’s not tied down. He’s got the national name ID, and he’ll go on to the floor of the Senate and create ” good trouble.”
Scenario #2: The Bass-Biden ticket
Bass is up for reelection for her South L.A. congressional seat this November.
She’s won it handily in recent cycles.
Her 37th Congressional seat represents South Los Angeles, Crenshaw, Baldwin Hills, Miracle Mile, Pico-Robertson, Century City, Cheviot Hills, West Los Angeles, and Mar Vista. It also encompasses Culver City as well as the unincorporated communities of View Park and Ladera Heights.
It’s a safe Democratic seat, so there’s not a ton of worry for Democrats here, experts say.
But if Bass makes it either to the White House (or to the U.S. Senate), “there will be a whole fight for the Bass seat,” Gonzalez said.
What will attract candidates is the prospect of having a majority in the House of Representatives come November.
The name of Los Angeles County Supervisor Mark Ridley-Thomas has been in the mix, but experts — and Ridley-Thomas himself — say he is firmly focused on winning a seat on the L.A. City Council.
“Never say never,” the former state legislator (and L.A. City Councilman) said this week, referring to any ambitions for a return to higher office. “But I prefer the local scene. I find that stimulating and fulfilling and there is a need for good work to be done right here in Los Angeles.”
Given it’s local nature, don’t be surprised to see familiar local names — perhaps some on the Assembly level — jump in.
‘Does (State Sen.) Holly Mitchell jump in for that?” Gonzalez said. (Some think that Mitchell, who is running against L.A. City Councilman Herb Wesson, might even have a shot at U.S. senator.)
Other names floated included L.A. City Councilman Marqueece Harris-Dawson and Assemblywoman Autumn R. Burke.
“It’s still a local congressional race. It’s all about the local name ID,” Gonzalez said.
How real?
But how realistic is either running mate scenario?
Very.
Harris and Bass are both reportedly on Biden’s short list — and increasing national scrutiny doesn’t appear to have raised their odds.
Bass has emerged as an even stronger contender in recent days as the Democratic National Convention draws near and Biden prepares to make an announcement.
“Harris is the safer pick,” said Pitney. “She ran for president. She’s been road-tested. You know how she runs in a large constituency. Three statewide elections…. . The only reason she didn’t do well in the presidential race is because she didn’t establish her own identity, which is not necessarily a bad thing for a vice presidential candidate.”
But Bass has been buoyed by an emergence on the national scene in the wake of the death of George Floyd, leading an effort for criminal justice reform and law enforcement accountability in Congress. And pundits say her coalition-building strengths are a solid fit for Biden.
“Bass is one of those very humble public servants who has been around a long time who has really no known enemies,” Regalado said. “Until recently, she was very much below the national radar. But people have started to give her a second or third look.”
It was just last year when Bass was standing at a podium overlooking USC’s vast Class of 2019 — all sitting close graduates together in the bygone pre-COVID era — which seems like eons ago.
“The nation needs you to dream,” she said. “It needs you to dream big. … ” Bass — the keynote commencement speaker — told Trojans.
She riffed off of “Fight On.”
“We need you to fight on until our nation — the richest nation in the history of the world –can find a way to provide healthcare, eliminate the achievement gap an ensure justice is truly experienced by all of our citizens,” said the South L.A. congresswomen.
The following month, on a fledgling presidential campaign trail, Sen. Harris was slamming Biden in a nationally televised debate, tearing into him for working with Southern segregationists as a lawmaker in the 1970s and his opposition to busing measures of the era.
“There was a little girl in California who was part of the second class to integrate her public schools and she was bused to school every day,” said an indignant Harris, the first Black U.S. Senator from California and one of only 10 African Americans to ever hold a Senate seat. “And that little girl was me.”
For Biden — the “mischaracterizations” were curveballs that had many questioning for months if he had what it took to command a deep field of Democratic hopefuls. That vulnerability would plague him — until it didn’t.
Oh, how times have changed.