I have the good fortune of interviewing more than 100 CIOs on the record per year. Most of the time, near the conclusion of those conversations, I will ask the CIOs with whom I am speaking what trends particularly excite them as they look to the future. It is a good way to understand where these CIOs, who shape the demand for enterprise technology, anticipate investing. It is also useful to understand which topics they are educating their colleagues about regarding the so called “art of the possible.” Here is a ranking of the topics mentioned most often during the past four full years together with the percentage of the time each topic has been mentioned.
Tech Trends Analysis of the Last Four Years
There are some interesting lessons to draw from this analysis.
The Rise and Fall of Blockchain
It has been fascinating to see how the technologies have risen and fallen in the past four years. For instance, in 2016 and 2017, blockchain did not make the top ten trends listed from CIOs. Then in 2018, it was second among all trends, with a third of my interviewees mentioning it as a priority. All of a sudden, many of the technology heads of major companies were investigating blockchain and investing in pilots to validate its usefulness. Just as quickly as it came, it began to fade, however, with 20 percent of interviewees mentioning blockchain as a priority in 2019. So far in 2020, almost no one has mentioned it.
This may lead to cynicism in the readers mind, but I think it is a positive thing. First, it is an example of how quickly innovations emerge and gain steam. It is also positive that CIOs elect to investigate trends like these to validate value and applicability to their operations. As it turns out, with some meaningful counterexamples to be sure, most of the CIOs with whom I speak did not go much beyond the experimentation phase with blockchain. Some referred to it as “a hammer in search of nails.” As Matt Harris of Bain Capital Ventures told me, “I suspect when the final analysis is done regarding all the time, effort, and money that went into it compared to the results, I believe it will be viewed as a weak use of resources.” Many CIOs seem to agree.
Data Takes Multiple Forms
When I ask my question of CIOs, it is not as a drop-down menu, they choose the terms they wish. In 2016 and 2017, the top trends listed were “big data,” mentioned by 62 percent and 54 percent of CIOs respectively. By 2019, big data was ninth on the list, offered by only 14 percent of CIOs. However, first among the topics chosen for 2018 and 2019 were artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML), offered as examples by 71 percent and 76 percent of CIOs, respectively. Also, third in 2019 was analytics, mentioned by 26 percent of CIOs. The overlap of the Venn diagram for these topics is significant so as times change, the words used change, as well.
AI and ML have risen from being noted by 46 percent of CIOs in 2016 to 76 percent of CIOs in 2019. Unlike blockchain, real use cases have emerged across most industries. Investment has pressed on to include investing in talent and technology, along with assembling a broader ecosystem related to AI and ML. With many IT departments cutting back staff during this economic downturn, investments in AI and ML may hold up, as the work once done by employees may be partially undertaken with the help of algorithms.
The Cloud Continues to Have Its Day in the Sun
Cloud-related topics have consistently been in the top-three for the past four years. The use of cloud technology has changed over the course of that period, but its sanctity has remained. The cloud penetration across companies has increased, and the success of Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud represents growing demand among enterprises that is unlikely to reverse. Company’s implementation of flexible and resilient “as-a-service” cloud technologies have been critical during the current downturn, allowing companies to scale back their usage of technology where that has been necessary.
Cybersecurity is Forever a Priority
Cybersecurity will always be a priority for CIOs. It peaked as the fourth most often noted topic in 2017, with 31 percent of CIOs noting it as a top trend area of focus. In 2019, it was seventh on the list at 18 percent. This should not be interpreted as 82 percent of CIOs not believing it to be a trend to invest in. Rather, as several of the other categories might compete to some extent in the “innovation” bucket, cybersecurity is never an “or,” but rather is an “and” to other areas of emphasis. It is a sign of the growth of CIO’s purview in innovation that other topics are listed earlier, as many of them had the opportunity to expand into several interesting areas. During this downturn, investment in cybersecurity technologies has increased, evidence of which can be seen with the stock performance of many of the leaders in this space despite the economic downturn.
Peter High is President of Metis Strategy , a business and IT advisory firm. His latest book is Implementing World Class IT Strategy . He is also the author of World Class IT: Why Businesses Succeed When IT Triumphs . Peter moderates the Technovation podcast series. Peter speaks at conferences around the world. Follow him on Twitter @PeterAHigh.